(This post was written on Saturday morning, March 21 at 9:26 Eastern Time. When the routine and realization of missing Saturday morning football became even more acute).
Every 12 hours seemed like something new this week. As global football unwound its calendar from the COVID-19 crisis, plenty of things moved about. Plans have changed, there’s big money at stake (and already lost) — and, most importantly for this blog — when and how you get to a match in the next 18 months is very up in the air.
May the virus — and this football-less existence — finish up and get out of here in a hurry.
On Tuesday, UEFA announced the push of the EURO 2020 tournament to … 2021. That was a great (and obvious) call, given that this year’s tournament was set to be played in cities all over Europe. That’s not a thing at the moment.
This adjustment helped domestic leagues set about determining how they would figure things out. Lots of things were discussed (reportedly), but it looks like the 2019-2020 fixture list will be played out no matter how long it takes. That could be by the end of the June 30 world football calendar year. It could be into early August. Some have said Christmas 2020 would be a good goal.
The primary driver of this, based on reports of the EPL conference calls this week, is the idea that clubs would owe global broadcasters nearly 762M GBP if these games aren’t played in some form or fashion.
No matter how you slice that cash flow pie, that’s not good for anyone. Nor is it sustainable at all. Nobody’s got that much extra to pitch in.
Will these matches go behind closed doors, in quarantined cities, just to get them over with? Does the FA Cup go on? How delayed does the Champions League get? Does the EPL skip a season — finishing this campaign, filling the gap in early 2021 and then starting fresh in 2021-2022.
Who knows? But after two weeks of stir crazy, it’s going to be exhausting to potentially speculate. That’s why the fun has to be looking forward to the time when you watch on TV and figure out a way to get to the matches again.
(If you can tolerate 30 minutes of choppy audio — and if you’ve been working from home via web conference, you surely can — check out Rebecca and the crew on the Two Robbies Podcast discussing options for what might happen.)
Rebooting The Season
Once the games come back on line, it will be an anti-climactic clinch for Liverpool. Can you imagine the parade? (I can’t — too many people. But that’s going to be the thing — too many people.)
When everyone finally gets to celebrate — gobs and gobs of people (a technical term) will be eager to be involved. Which is why any of this should only go on when it’s absolutely safe enough to deal with not only the matches, but all of the things that surround a match. Like the big celebration you know they’ll have in Liverpool.
Last night’s reports of overflowing pubs in the UK — like it was New Year’s Eve — is enough warning that things will be crazy and crowded. No one wants to be Philadelphia during a parade —both the Spanish Flu and the Eagles Super Bowl versions.
A Delayed Start To The Next Campaign?
Many clubs were due to put their season ticket renewals in place in the last week. Those efforts have been postponed, in part because England is pretty much shut for non-essential things until at least the end of April.
If things got started up May 5 — there would be two game weeks left in the regular calendar. It’s going to be tough for many teams to sell season tickets for a match calendar that could be very up in the air (or shortened, or skipped).
One of my favorite things about the summer is the drop of the fixture list. Even though it’s merely the match up by week — it’s the sign that starts to determine the probability of a trip, the kind of trip it might be (a multi-match bonanza?) and the impact of European competitions on the possibilities and game weeks.
Fast forward to this very moment, and it looks like the EPL will play out this season no matter how long it takes. So, there’s going to be a pretty big delay (I’d think) in the ability to determine another year’s fixture list.
So much goes into the planning of the fixture list that you have to know exactly who is going to be competing where — the ups and downs between the EPL and the Championship, the European places and the schedules for those matches and match weeks.
Generally, it’s around 6-8 weeks between the settling of all places and the announcement of a new EPL schedule. If this campaign pushes until Christmas — you’d have a new schedule by March 2021. Club campaigns will definitely need to end in time for Euro 2021. The football associations need the money from the once-every-4-years money maker to operate. The rest of the broader community will be compelled to accommodate.
My Early Prediction + What To Think About Now
I don’t think we’ll see a full EPL season in 2020-2021. To accommodate those needs would be crazy. Ending club football by early May 2021 will be essential to a successful Euro 2021. It might be a very good thing to see EPL stars get extra rest and recovery before a very competitive tournament in the summer.
I’d vote the EPL find a creative way to fill the void with a separate competition that bridges the gap between the FA Cup and the other English football leagues. (I have a few ideas — but let’s wait on those for a bit. None of them are going to be international traveler-friendly).
If you’re here at this blog for its main mission — the idea of going to grounds — we’re in for an extended period of dreamland. Where you can daydream about amazing trips and pies and pints and pubs and the idea of getting to a number of matches.
Flying anywhere is going to be a mess for a good while. Deals have ground to a halt — I haven’t seen a dispatch from my favorites at Scott’s Cheap Flights for what seems like forever (it’s probably been two weeks, but still).
And despite the need to make sure the air travel industry survives, you don’t want to tie up your money in the ever-shifting cancelation, refund and rebook policies of this industry that’s holding desperately to cash. So, watching the schedules is useless. Don’t book a thing.
Hang In There
We’ve got a long, long way to go to try and flatten the curve. The UK predictions for peak cases are 10 weeks out (10 weeks?!? That’s almost JUNE!).
So, while we hang in there — let’s hope NBCSN gets better audio for their all-hands podcasts in the coming weeks. Maybe they’ll also let the Men In Blazers go Mystery Science 3000 on some matches — build them a panic room in Stamford! And, come back and check-in as this (very new!) blog shifts to building some more evergreen content that will live to help you make a great trip, no matter when that trip has to be.